For financial operators, electoral uncertainty is like a wild river. By doing the right thing at the right time, you can earn a lot of money. This is what happened these days, with the increase in country risk and the cost of insurance against default as a backdrop.
As they told this newspaper from a foreign investment fund, what happened is that there was some price disharbitance between the price of debt securities in dollars and the cost of insurance against default. Taking advantage of the increased fears of an unwanted election result by the market, some investors could put together a “martingale” taking advantage in a window of opportunity that left them a significant gain – while that window was open -, capitalizing on the disarmament of positions of investors that were scared by the collapse of the prices that was observed between Monday and the first hours of yesterday.
The truth is that in the first three days of the week the increase in the country risk, the circulation of negative surveys for the Government, the round-trip of the prices of the shares and the questions on the exchange market put many at risk. edge an attack of nerves.
The situation – at least financial – began to calm down yesterday. Country risk started up more than 3% but ended almost neutral and shares rose 1.4% while the dollar fell almost 1%. Last night, the cost of insurance against default started up.
Even in the midst of uncertainty some financial operators – who fear a CFK triumph – sought to look at the glass half full. “If the polls do bad for the government, the chances of polarizing increase, leaving an eventual third candidate in an unfavorable position.”
If there was a trend break or just the typical volatility of these days, it will be seen with the running of the wheels.
But one fact did not go unnoticed. And is that the dollar scored its third consecutive loss followed. Yesterday there was almost a peso below Friday’s close. And this Wednesday there was a remarkable event. At around 2:30 pm, the dollar buyers disappeared from the screens, grouping the dollar purchase offers on the left and the sales proposals on the right (see photo). This was a clear sign that the market is still hoping that -if nothing unusual happens here, but also abroad- the trend of the exchange rate is downward. The market is already processing the dollars of grain exporters and is preparing to receive, from next Monday, the 60 million dollars per day that will start auctioning the Treasury, in agreement with the Monetary Fund. In the city they do not rule out that in a week or two the BCRA will buy dollars again.